Weekly Crystallizations

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Weekly Crystallizations #070
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Weekly Crystallizations #070

Weekly sensemaking update

Jesse Szepieniec
Dec 27, 2021
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Weekly Crystallizations #070
jessems.substack.com

Hello friends,

Welcome to a new edition of Weekly Crystallizations, a weekly newsletter where I highlight tweets from people making sense of what’s going on in the world today!

In this week’s edition:

  • Omicron preferentially infects the vaccinated?

  • COVID risks are exaggerated

  • Higher risk of myocarditis after 2 jabs, than from COVID


Hypothesis: The Omicron wave will be mild

Epistemic status: Partially crystallized

The picture emerging from Omicron continues to be one of less severe disease than Delta, but this is partly due to the existing immunity in the population. @roby_bhatt shares a first estimate of reduced intrinsic severity: 25%.

Twitter avatar for @roby_bhattRoby Bhattacharyya @roby_bhatt
Multiple studies this wk on rel severity of Omi vs Delta. IMO the Imperial College report best distinguished intrinsic severity from prior immunity. tl;dr: - O ~25% less severe than D - but more transmission - & prob more severe than other variants (incl its ancestor) 🧵 1/14

December 24th 2021

463 Retweets1,575 Likes

Here’s an overall estimate of reduced severity from the UK:

Twitter avatar for @MRC_OutbreakMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @MRC_Outbreak
NEW REPORT #COVID19 Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England ➡️Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta. Read the report here 👇
imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
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December 22nd 2021

128 Retweets205 Likes

Does natural immunity from Delta protect one against Omicron? Professor Balloux Francois believes it’s likely Omicron will evade neutralizing antibodies, but not T-cell immunity. Which means you’ll get infected, but you’ll be protected against severe disease.

Twitter avatar for @BallouxFrancoisProf Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois
@CMichaelGibson Based on sequence conservation were can predict that X-immunisation is low between Delta and Omicron in terms of neutralising antibodies (i.e. protection against re-infection), both ways, but ~100% conserved in terms of T-cell immunity (i.e. protection against severe disease).

December 26th 2021

22 Retweets180 Likes

One reason there may be reduced intrinsic severity is that Omicron is showing a reduced ability to infect the lungs when compared to Delta.

Twitter avatar for @EricTopolEric Topol @EricTopol
As #SARSCoV2 evolved to Omicron, transmission and immune escape reached new levels. Fortunately, 3 independent studies from top labs, including one in a well regarded in vivo model, all show reduced lung infectivity vs Delta @SystemsVirology @GuptaR_lab @hkumed
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December 27th 2021

448 Retweets1,492 Likes

More data from Denmark showing a stark divergence between cases and hospitalizations.

Twitter avatar for @peterdonaghyPeter Donaghy @peterdonaghy
Another day of Danish COVID-19 data; 13,386 cases, slightly down from yesterday's record 13,558. The number of hospital patients is down (by one) to 553. Hospital patients as a % of 30 day cases is down to a new record low of 0.276% - completely unprecedented.
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December 22nd 2021

78 Retweets381 Likes

Hypothesis: Politicians and academics exaggerated the risks of COVID-19

Epistemic status: Crystallized

Professor Norman Fenton comments on footage showing US parademics refusing to enter a hospital to attend to a man suffering a heart attack because of fear of COVID or fear of reprisal for breaking COVID rules.

Twitter avatar for @profnfentonProf Norman Fenton @profnfenton
Politicians and academics deliberately exaggerated the risks in order to ensure compliance. There are consequences of their actions…

thehardhatintellectual @hardhatintellec

Denied treatment over covid vaccine....and died because of it. You people are monsters https://t.co/JUiXodXrZ0

December 25th 2021

64 Retweets175 Likes

A new meta-analysis by Stanford professor John P.A. Ionnidis came out estimating the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for COVID-19.

Twitter avatar for @csuwildcatDaniel Ƀrrr @csuwildcat
Latest data on age-segmented Infection Fatality Rate: 0-19: 0.0013% (99.9987% survival) 20-29: 0.0088% (99.9912%) 30-39: 0.021% (99.979%) 40-49: 0.042% (99.958%) 50-59: 0.14% 60-69: 0.65% The numbers were revised down (found to be even better) during initial peer review.

December 26th 2021

26 Retweets124 Likes

I’d like to compare these figures to influenza figures, but those are hard to come by. One estimate using official data from Germany puts the IFR across all ages at 0.27%. Which would mean that COVID is less deadly than the flu if you’re below 40. Note that the IFR will also have dropped due to the vaccines offering some protection against severe disease.

Hypothesis: Higher risk of myocarditis from mRNA vaccines than COVID-19 for men <40

Epistemic status: Partially crystallized

An addendum to a recent Nature Medicine study shows that dose 2 and 3 of Pfizer and dose 1 and 2 of Moderna are associated with a higher risk of myocarditis for men <40 than from COVID-19 itself.

Twitter avatar for @VPrasadMDMPHVinay Prasad, MD MPH 🎙️📷 @VPrasadMDMPH
By request, UK authors of Dec 14, 21's @NatureMedicine paper, now separate by age & sex For Men <40 Pfizer D2 & D3 Moderna D1 & D2 Have rates of myocarditis GREATER than after sars-cov-2 infection 👇 I discuss the data & HUGE implications here:
vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/uk-now-repor…
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December 26th 2021

1,355 Retweets2,749 Likes

Hypothesis: Spike vaccines are causing deaths that are not linked to the vaccines

Epistemic status: Partially crystallized

I’ve upgraded this hypothesis from “Not crystallized” to “Partially crystallized”. I still don’t know what to make of this, but this signal has been too pronounced and too consistent to ignore. And I haven’t heard any plausible hypotheses other than that this has something to do with the vaccines.

3 more football/soccer players die due to apparent heart attacks.

Twitter avatar for @hazandvlietHarry Zandvliet @hazandvliet
OPNIEUW 3 jonge voetballers stierven deze week na plotselinge hartaanval "Nooit eerder in de geschiedenis van de sport zijn volgens Wikipedia zoveel spelers tijdens de training of op het veld in elkaar gezakt en gestorven." @thierrybaudet @dancalegria
UNPRECEDENTED: Three Young Football Players Die This Week Following Sudden Heart AttacksThe unprecedented rise in deaths from cardiac arrest in international football continues with the deaths of three more players this week.thecovidworld.com

December 25th 2021

78 Retweets100 Likes

@Cernovich asks why we’re not seeing analogous deaths within other sports? (Good question).

Twitter avatar for @CernovichCernovich @Cernovich
Surely many of you are ⚽️ fans Do these recent deaths seem like a high amount? I don’t get it because American 🏈‘ers aren’t dropping dead. Nor are 🏀

December 25th 2021

153 Retweets1,616 Likes

A NY times editor dies after getting his Moderna booster.

Twitter avatar for @Lilith_AssyriaLilith of Assyria 😊 🦅 @Lilith_Assyria
Safe
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December 25th 2021

393 Retweets875 Likes

Although Ben M’s graph of excess deaths has neatly tracked COVID deaths during the pandemic (pointing at a conclusion where excess deaths can be explained by COVID deaths), recently there’s a divergence between the two. What’s more, it seems that the divergence coincides with the uptick in boosters.

I don’t know what to make of this yet.

Twitter avatar for @USMortalityBen M. @USMortality
US Weekly Covid Deaths vs Excess Deaths vs Total Vaccination #Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
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December 23rd 2021

20 Retweets50 Likes

Theme: Ivermectin

A Nature review article came out covering the possible mechanisms of action of ivermectin against SARS-CoV-2. Ivermectin has been caught in a political maelstrom ever since it was suggested as a possible early treatment / prophylactic for COVID-19, making it near-impossible to ascertain whether there’s any clinical effectiveness to the drug. I can’t comment on the contents on this article, but the fact this was published in a top tier journal such as Nature suggests to me the discussion among reputable scientists has not yet settled.

Twitter avatar for @RWMaloneMDRobert W Malone, MD @RWMaloneMD
The mechanisms of action of ivermectin against SARS-CoV-2—an extensive review NATURE- 21 December 2021 Merry Christmas @PierreKory , @P_McCulloughMD , @richardursomd, Zev Zelenko, and Paul Merik
The mechanisms of action of ivermectin against SARS-CoV-2—an extensive review - The Journal of AntibioticsThe Journal of Antibiotics - &lt;ArticleTitle Language=&quot;En&quot; xml:lang=&quot;en&quot;&gt;The mechanisms of action of ivermectin against SARS-CoV-2&#8212;an...nature.com

December 21st 2021

1,939 Retweets3,691 Likes

Hypothesis: Omicron preferentially infects the vaccinated

Epistemic status: Not crystallized

There are some early signals showing that the vaccinated are getting infected at higher rates than the unvaccinated. This might be due to COVID restrictions which allow freedom of movement for the vaccinated, but not the unvaccinated, even though both may get infected and infect others.

@Covid19Crusher shares a screenshot from Ontario, Canada, showing the vaccinated getting infected at higher rates than the unvaccinated.

Twitter avatar for @Covid19CrusherCovid19Crusher @Covid19Crusher
Omicron seems to have a special affinity for vaccinated people.
covid-19.ontario.ca/data
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December 26th 2021

60 Retweets149 Likes

Good thing he took a screenshot, because the Ontario data portal subsequently mysteriously went offline.

Twitter avatar for @jessemsjessems.eth @jessems
Data from Ontario, Canada had just started showing vāccinated individuals getting infected at higher rates than unvāccinated individuals. And now their data portal is down 🤔.
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Covid19Crusher @Covid19Crusher

Omicron seems to have a special affinity for vaccinated people. https://t.co/8Sm6YZtsPl https://t.co/xcrQCnVdj6

December 27th 2021

1 Like

Study out of Denmark showing negative effectiveness against Omicron.

Twitter avatar for @rfsquaredRamin Farzaneh-Far MD @rfsquared
🇩🇰 🤔 confirmation of *negative effectiveness* of mRNA vaccines against omicron >90 days after 2 doses:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
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December 23rd 2021

876 Retweets1,972 Likes

El Gato Malo makes a correction to his independent analysis of Danish data, and finds even worse Vaccine Effectiveness (against infection) against Omicron.

Twitter avatar for @RWMaloneMDRobert W Malone, MD @RWMaloneMD
Excellent corrected analysis of the Danish data involving negative vaccine efficacy that is being so widely discussed.
boriquagato.substack.com/p/addendumcorr…
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December 25th 2021

2,578 Retweets5,217 Likes

Anecdotal reports from India.

Twitter avatar for @ichudovIgоr Chudоv @ichudov
33 out of 34 hospitalized Omicron Patients in Delhi are FULLY VAXXED And the country is only 40% fully vaxxed
33 out of 34 hospitalized Omicron Patients in Delhi are FULLY VAXXEDIndia is only 40% fully vaxxedigorchudov.substack.com

December 24th 2021

10 Retweets24 Likes

More anecdotal evidence.

Twitter avatar for @DeefrancesjonesDee @Deefrancesjones
Ok, I now personally know 3 unvax’d that have had Covid over the last 2 weeks, and 3 vaxd. All of the vax’d have had worse symptoms than the unvax’d, but all no more severe than a cold. So genuine question what actually is the vax protecting us from? 🤔

December 26th 2021

1,297 Retweets5,988 Likes

Theme: Resistance

Twitter avatar for @aginntAaron Ginn @aginnt
You won’t see this in the media. All across Germany there are daily protests against lockdowns, vaxx passports, and forced vaccination.

December 24th 2021

720 Retweets1,429 Likes

Theme: Novavax

A new vaccine, Novavax, has been granted emergency authorization.

Twitter avatar for @NovavaxNovavax @Novavax
We are pleased to announce that the European Medicines Agency has recommended granting a conditional marketing authorization for Novavax’ Covid-19 vaccine Nuvaxovid (also known as NVX-CoV2373) to prevent COVID-19 in people from 18 years of age. Learn more:
bit.ly/3peJcIE
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December 20th 2021

332 Retweets1,214 Likes

Here’s a short video on how it works.

Twitter avatar for @ScientistSwandaRob Swanda @ScientistSwanda
the protein-based Covid-19 vaccine from Novavax has received approval by the EU! another big step for helping curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially right now. learn how the Novavax vaccine works below 👇

December 21st 2021

66 Retweets239 Likes

I doubt it will have a significant impact on vaccination rates though.

Misc COVID

I reported on Michael A Osborne, a machine learning professor and amateur runner, last year as he reported suffering from long COVID. I shared it as an example of healthy, fit people getting long COVID. He seems now to have recovered.

Twitter avatar for @maosbotMichael A Osborne @maosbot
Content warning: Long Covid recovery After 18 months of illness, it has now been over three months since I felt any Long Covid symptoms. I am exercising regularly. However, if you viewed my recovery as inevitable—respectfully—I must say that this view is wrong and ableist.

December 21st 2021

52 Retweets793 Likes

Major differences in COVID cases between Japan and South Korea, despite many variables being similar. A humble reminder that we often don’t understand what’s going on.

Twitter avatar for @EricTopolEric Topol @EricTopol
When it's hard to explain Japan has withstood Omicron's rise to dominance with very few cases, deaths, boosters to date, 78% vaccinated While South Korea, like Japan, masking and distancing, 82% vaccinated, high use of boosters, had a significant outbreak @OurWorldInData
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December 26th 2021

345 Retweets1,167 Likes

Hypothesis: The Merck pill will drive viral immune escape

Epistemic status: Not crystallized

It seems that some scientists are blowing the whistle on Merck’s new pill, whose mechanism of action is inducing mutations. It seems that perhaps that’s not such a great idea.

Twitter avatar for @michaelzlinMichael Lin, PhD-MD 🧬 @michaelzlin
Would you prefer (1) we get back to normal activities sometime, or (2) we make new vaccine-evading coronaviruses continuously, suffer widespread breakthrough waves, and wear masks forever? If you chose #1, then know this: Merck's molnupiravir should not be approved.

December 23rd 2021

758 Retweets2,410 Likes

It might even have caused Omicron.

Twitter avatar for @ydeiginYuri Deigin @ydeigin
Is molnupiravir the missing puzzle piece that can explain Omicron and its 3x higher mutation rate than normally observed in SARS2? Maybe molnupiravir was studied in humanized mice?
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December 23rd 2021

71 Retweets243 Likes

Hypothesis: Omicron was man-made or caused by man

Epistemic status: Not crystallized

Omicron’s mutational profile put it in a league of its own.

Twitter avatar for @alexandrosMAlexandros Marinos @alexandrosM
This hypothesis just won't go away. Yes, I realize alleging a second lab-involved incident is starting to sound ridiculous, but there's data that requires explanation.

Tony VanDongen @tony_vandongen

Omicron does not have a natural origin. Its mutation properties place it in its own league when compared to all the natural variants. Red dot is Omicron. Blue dots are Variants of Concern (Delta etc.). Gray dots are other variants. Notice how isolated Omicron is. https://t.co/7BHmaayD7s

December 23rd 2021

76 Retweets369 Likes

According to Yuri, some mutations resemble mutations that were last observed when SARS2 was adapted to mice in labs.

Twitter avatar for @ydeiginYuri Deigin @ydeigin
Are virologists going to address this elephant in the room?

Yuri Deigin @ydeigin

@jwordfish @jbloom_lab Omicron has mutations that were observed when SARS2 was adapted to mice in labs — live mice or murine cells. What this implies is another question. To me a lab leak is more parsimonious than having SARS2 infect wild mice 18 mo ago, learn to escape immunity and jump back just now.

December 22nd 2021

59 Retweets241 Likes

China

While the world is distracted, China quietly exerts its influence.

Twitter avatar for @MichaelPSengerMichael P Senger @MichaelPSenger
During the night, CCP officials removed the Pillar of Shame from the University of Hong Kong, which memorialized all those Chinese who were killed by their government during the Tiananmen Square Massacre.
hongkongfp.com/2021/12/23/bre…
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December 22nd 2021

2,938 Retweets5,590 Likes
Twitter avatar for @thierrybaudetThierry Baudet @thierrybaudet
Amazon agreed to allow only five-star reviews for Xi’s book in China | World | The Times 😂😂😂
thetimes.co.uk/article/amazon…Amazon agreed to allow only five-star reviews for Xi’s book in ChinaAmazon quietly removed criticism of President Xi’s books by scrubbing bad reviews, ratings and comments from its Chinese site, it has emerged. The US retail giant agreed to Beijing’s demand to have anything below a five-star review of Xi Jinping’s book The Governance of China removed from Amazon.cnthetimes.co.uk

December 23rd 2021

102 Retweets511 Likes

Crypto

All technology can be used for good and for bad. DAOs ares till nascent, but they’ve proven themselves as uncensorable funding and coordination machines.

Twitter avatar for @musalbasMustafa Al-Bassam @musalbas
Prediction: within the next few years, a terrorist group will create a DAO for fundraising and treasury management, and it will unleash a can of worms and a torrent of hot takes like we've never seen before, as well as igniting a new crypto war.

December 25th 2021

11 Retweets102 Likes

There was as little spat in the crypto world between Twitter’s founder, Jack, who recently left the company, and Chris Dixon, a legendary Silicon Valley VC.

Twitter avatar for @cdixoncdixon.eth @cdixon
I am a huge fan of @jack and hope we can eventually bring him around to ETH and other blockchains. BTC is great as digital gold but there are other important applications that require other chains.

December 21st 2021

188 Retweets3,679 Likes
Twitter avatar for @jackjack⚡️ @jack
@cdixon I believe in you and your ability to understand systems. It’s critical we focus our energy on truly secure and resilient technologies owned by the mass of people, not individuals or institutions. Only that foundation will provide for the applications you allude to.

December 21st 2021

941 Retweets8,549 Likes

Airdops have dominated headlines in the crypto scene as of late. In an attempt to jump start the process of governing themselves, decentralized organizations have been “dropping” voting rights (in the form of tokens) to their users (often based on their activity on the platform).

Twitter avatar for @sriramkSriram Krishnan - sriramk.eth @sriramk
Airdrops are such a powerful mechanism with no analog in web2. It would be the equivalent of every social media platform user getting a bunch of free money + governance rights for historical usage and support.

December 25th 2021

40 Retweets427 Likes

Misc

Twitter avatar for @moxieMoxie Marlinspike @moxie
It's amazing to me that after all this time, almost all media coverage of Telegram still refers to it as an "encrypted messenger." Telegram has a lot of compelling features, but in terms of privacy and data collection, there is no worse choice. Here's how it actually works: 1/

December 23rd 2021

2,016 Retweets5,655 Likes
Twitter avatar for @jgreenhallJordan Hall (∞ , ∞) @jgreenhall
I have the distinct sense that something like a "social credit system" is part of most futures. The real question is whether it is centralized / terraforming or distributed / collaborative.

December 23rd 2021

7 Retweets150 Likes
Twitter avatar for @ErikSolheimErik Solheim @ErikSolheim
Leaf sheep are capable of a chemical process called kleptoplasty, in which they retain the chloroplasts from the algae they feed on. Absorbing the chloroplasts from algae then enables them to indirectly perform photosynthesis. @RebeccaH2030

December 20th 2021

335 Retweets1,270 Likes

Art

Twitter avatar for @womensart1#WOMENSART @womensart1
Brittany, France early 20thc, women making 'picot bigouden' a form of intricate and complex crochet linking to Irish crochet #WomensArt
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December 27th 2021

915 Retweets5,178 Likes
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